Imagining the future used to be the job of miserable sci-fi writers. Think killer robots, toxic fungi, alien probes.
But stand aside, Asimov. Thanks to new government rules, all New Zealand industries must now engage in some crystal-ball gazing to imagine how they might survive or die in a climate change-affected world. The rules are set out in an acronym soup worthy of a Space-X manual: the XRB* requires CREs** to submit their scenarios to ensure they comply with CS1-3***, as set out by the TCFD****.
It’s gripping stuff.
The tourism and hospitality sector report has just landed. It sets out the implications for the industry in three possible futures: warmer, much warmer and toasted.
The first and most benign scenario is delightful. It imagines a world that has got its act together and kept global temperatures within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The implications for tourism and hospitality look tough but manageable. Visitor numbers hold, people stay longer and seek more authentic connections to our restored biodiversity, and operators have a more holistic approach to business, managing people, planet and profit in harmony. The report says the mauri, the connectedness of things, is healthy.
Sadly, no self-respecting sci-fi would be so utopian, so the other two scenarios – a two-degree and three-degree world – are explored with equal vigour and reveal (spoiler alert!) increasing levels of carnage. Here’s what tourism and hospitality look like in the three-degree equivalent of a Whakarewarewa village:
The report goes into some graphic detail (warning: some readers may this distressing):
New Zealand is seen as an attractive destination compared to the rest of the world so tourism remains viable. But, severe storms including lightning incidents, flooding, sea level rise near airports, economic shocks, disruptions and geopolitical tensions limit the numbers of international visitors, reduce tourism offerings, restrict areas open to visitors and increase the costs of flying both domestically and internationally. Cruise ships dominate the Trans-Tasman travel bubble.
Skiing is only viable in the highest accessible elevations in the South Island and has a much shorter season, being highly dependent upon snowmaking. Continuing high rates of private car ownership means the kiwi road trip is still popular. But, high fuel and energy costs, and the potential for disruption, mean visitors tend to travel slower and domestic travellers stay closer to home.
A large number of attractions, including Great Walks in the Abel Tasman, the Chathams and the West Coast, have had to close due to constant storm damage. Others in Central Otago and the East Cape have become unpopular as ecosystems have declined and biodiversity disappeared. Heat in Central North Island means Mount Ruapehu is too exposed for visitors for longer periods of time.
But, some regions have been able to capitalise on the changing climate as warmer or drier weather made them more attractive. In particular, some western and southern coastal areas formerly considered too cold now have pleasant summer climates. Seeing the impacts that travel and visitors have on their communities through higher fossil fuel use, poor air quality and damage to already vulnerable infrastructure, many rural towns are no longer keen to accept visitors, and a small number of large organisations dominate the industry.
Large resorts that are well protected from physical climate change and insulated from the struggling communities around them have emerged and offer longterm visitors safe haven. Innovative experiences, such as virtual reality, online simulations of attractions and web-based interactive tours, grow to become a larger part of the industry. Similarly, cultural travel is common, but mostly in the form of ‘last-chance tourism’. Visitors seek out some Māori cultural sites and landscapes that do not have the resilience to survive the changing climate.
The scary thing is that this future is entirely possible – and while we can prepare for it, so much is outside of our ability to change. The report writers acknowledge as much. “The reality that changes we make in our corner of the world will have little impact on the global environment is not lost on us. But we also know that we can either sit on our hands and leave our future to others, or we can give it our all and be an example of what can be achieved when everyone paddles the waka together.”
The report is just one in a series produced under the Industry Transformation Plans, covering the major sectors, including agriculture and farming. The first phase of the tourism and hospitality sector landed in March and is called Better Work. There’s a video summary below. The second stream has to do with the environment of which the scenarios report is the first element.
These documents, though sometimes long and wordy are pretty interesting and worth a read if you’re serious about the future of our sector.
*External Reporting Board ** Climate Related Entities *** Climate Standards 1-3 **** Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
