Every so often the bowels of the public service blows out the kind of data analysis and insight you just hope someone in government is doing.
Last month MPI released the first of its once-every-three-year Long-term Insights Briefings. All ministries must do this now. This one is called The Future of Aotearoa New Zealand’s Food Sector. And it’s good.
It’s not for everyone. There are no human interest stories and the pies are only of the graphic kind. It also has a glaring and stupid flaw, but we’ll get to that. If you want a snapshot our food sector and its future in one 56-page document, you’ll find it here. And if 56 pages is too much then read this. I promise to do it in just eight graphs.
1. What do we make? Dairy and meat and some other stuff but most dairy
If you’ve ever wondered why the dairy sector has so much sway over government policy, look no further. He who pays the piper and all that. The plant-based economy has a long way to go to displace conventional protein with dairy and meat monstering our export sales at 74%.
2. We sell it to China – more than the US, Australia, Europe and Japan altogether
China dominates, followed by US, Australia, Europe, Japan and Taiwan. Mother England is a distant 9th. Perhaps Brexit might be good for something.
3. And it’s growing
Food not only dominates our exports it’s also growing strongly. And you can see the big contributors, here again, are dairy and meat.
4. The world will continue to demand food …
According to the report, ‘consumers will need 56 percent more food by 2050. They are living longer, more are better educated, and the shift to living in cities will continue. However, the equity gap between rich and poor persists with continuing rising wealth inequity and political unrest for more than 70 percent of the world’s population.
‘The significant demographic shift to Asia and Africa will continue, with rising population and incomes, as population rates in the west slow. Almost 3 billion, or more than 40 percent of today’s population, will join the middle classes by 2050. These entrants will be almost exclusively from today’s emerging markets.’
5. …Especially in Asia and Africa
6. Core food requirements will be the same in 2050 – just with some ethics
The fundamental requirements of food won’t change that much by 2050. The main demands are food safety, affordability, taste, price, quality and convenience. But sustainability, sovereignty and ethics are inching up the list. Climate impact will be measured by Scope 3 gross emissions.
7. Middle-class continues to be the target for NZ producers
The report says: ‘our target demographic was the high-growth middle-class consumers who are financially able to pursue individual preferences.’ The writers speculate that this group can be logically dividied into six consumer demand profiles.
8. And the future is bright for New Zealand’s food sector
Overall, the report remains bullish on food. “Demand for New Zealand’s current product mix of mostly commodity ingredients is likely to continue. There are also significant opportunities to diversify into new products and markets to serve emerging end-consumer needs and aspirations. Diversifying our market coverage and export mix to meet consumer-driven needs should support resilience in our food sector. It may also bolster the reliability of our returns, potentially improve our environmental footprint and help achieve our Fit for a Better World and other strategic objectives.”
9. And yet, I’m reminded of something …
I don’t know about you but as soon as I see congratulatory words like that my mind turns to Kodak and other confident failures. The report glosses over the impact of Black Swan events like Covid, the growing threat of nationalism and climate change. More worryingly, it barely acknowledges the threats from technology, especially alt proteins. The near complete reliance (74%!) on dairy and meat exposes a great vulnerability. The alt protein revolution is making laughable progress right now, just like all new technologies do. But the logic for the destruction of farmed protein is strong.
I imagine that if music executives were writing an assessment of their industry in 1999, they too would be giving a polite nod to the upstart technologists. But the graphs of record sales nevertheless would continue to climb as they always had. After all, wasn’t Asia just discovering rock n roll? Wasn’t Africa growing a middle-class with CD players? In fact, the graphs for record sales look more like a waterslide, throwing the industry to the bottom of the pool. I hope this isn’t our future of food but, hell, shouldn’t it be contemplated?
